Day 1 Convective Outlook
The Day 1 Convective Outlook, Day 2 Convective Outlook and Day 3 Convective Outlook are
guidance products issued by the SPC Operational Branch in Norman, Oklahoma. The Day 1
outlook outlines areas in the continental United States where severe thunderstorms may
develop during the next 6 to 73 hours. The Day 1 Convective Outlook is issued 5 times
daily: at 06Z (the initial day-1 outlook, valid 12Z that day until 12Z the following day),
13Z and 1630Z (the "morning updates," valid until 12Z the next day), 20Z (the
"afternoon update," valid until 12Z the next day), and the 01Z (the
"evening update," valid until 12Z the following day).
Day 2 Convective Outlook
The Day 2 Outlook is very similar to the Day 1 Outlook. However, it is issued only twice a
day, at 08Z and 1730Z, and covers the period from 12Z the following day to 12Z the day
after that. For example, if today is Monday then the Day 2 Outlook will cover the period
12Z Tuesday to 12Z Wednesday.
Day 3 Convective Outlook
On November 7, 2001, the SPC began issuing Convective Outlooks for the Day 3 period to the
public. These outlooks are similar to the Day 2 outlooks in that the probabilities
represent the probabilities of any type of severe weather hazard (tornadoes, large hail,
damaging wind) within 25 miles of any point. Because of the large and increasing amount of
uncertainty forecasting severe weather 3 days ahead of time no attempt is made to forecast
areas of significant severe weather hazards. Credit to the Storm Prediction Center, NWS
and NOAA for the above data and information |
